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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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